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 The State of Alaska (ADEC) and U.S. Coast Guard are working on a multi-stage risk assessment of maritime transportation in the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Archipelago. This effort is being driven by the December 8, 2004 grounding and subsequent oil spill from the M/V Selendang Ayu, along with other marine casualties in the region.
Risk assessment is a systematic approach used to evaluate the level of safety of a complex system and to identify appropriate safety improvements. It is an established engineering discipline and has been used in the maritime industry in the past with varying degrees of success. Both the State of Alaska and the U.S. Coast Guard have had experience with maritime risk assessments, and both understand the complexity of the problem at hand, as well as the need for a well-designed process that would ensure a successful outcome. Consequently, they asked the National Academies to examine the available data and develop a framework and the most appropriate and scientifically rigorous approach possible for the comprehensive risk assessment, and to design the assessment with a logical sequence of building blocks so that it could be conducted in discrete steps.
To conduct this study, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) within the National Academies empaneled the Committee for Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian
Islands: A Study to Design a Comprehensive Assessment. The committee  included individuals with expertise in risk assessment methods and practices; risk assessment data and analyses; risk
analyses, with emphasis on evaluation and prevention of ship accidents; commercial shipping, with emphasis on North Pacific operations; navigation safety and voyage planning; U.S. Coast
Guard missions and operations related to waterway management and accident response; environmental protection; and regulatory approaches to ship safety and accident prevention.
The committee met three times. During a multiday meeting (October 29–November 2, 2007) in Alaska with a site visit to Dutch Harbor, the committee heard from stakeholders and
reviewed available data pertinent to its charge. Stakeholders discussed specific hazards presented by Aleutian shipping operations and a range of possible mitigation measures they
believed should be considered for implementation.
At its second meeting, held January 7–8, 2008, the committee received presentations on the following topics:
- Related maritime risk assessments, including:
- Methodologies and approaches in recent and ongoing assessments in the United States (Puget Sound and San Francisco)
- Methodologies and approaches in recent assessments in Europe
- Methodologies employed in limited-scope risk analyses
- Spill response and environmental impacts:
- Vessel casualties and oil outflow modeling
- Impacts from spills of persistent oils
- Commercial vessel operations/practices
- Spill risk from a ship owners Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Club perspective
- Availability and accessibility of U.S. Coast Guard data
The efforts of the committee culminated with the completion of their report titled: Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands. An electronic copy of the of the report (Special Report 293) can be found online at the following link: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr293.pdf
The second phase of the project – conducting the Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment in accordance with the TRB design, is now underway. As set forth in the design, the assessment organization and management structure consists of four groups: a Management Team, an Advisory Panel, a Risk Analysis Team, and a Peer Review Panel. In addition to the U.S. Coast Guard and the State of Alaska (ADEC), the management team includes the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF), the agency responsible for allocating the funds. A priority for the management team is the establishment of the advisory panel and selection and contracting of a facilitator for the panel. The advisory panel will represent a structured stakeholder/participatory approach intended to build trust, clarify the values and goals that should inform the assessment, incorporate local information and knowledge that could otherwise be missed, and potentially provide a path to organizational learning and policy change that might not otherwise be available. The panel will consist of stakeholders and experts who can offer local knowledge and expertise on all issues pertinent to the assessment, such as local infrastructure, relevant industries, waterways and their navigation, weather, and habitats. The panel will include representatives from the following:
- Municipalities
- Environmental organizations/interests
- Subsistence users
- Landowners and managers (e.g., Maritime National Wildlife Refuge)
- Different sectors of the fishing industry
- Industry representatives (including salvors, pilots, mariners, and port authorities)
- Government agencies offering special expertise (e.g., NOAA)
- Others with expertise in local weather, habitats, waterways, infrastructure, etc.
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